Who's Afraid of an Aging Population?

I was recently wondering why so many men, especially the elites, are terrified that our overall population is (gasp!) aging. It is not just because they fear that their economic Ponzi scheme of necrotic growth for the sake of growth will unravel, though that is clearly part of it as well. No, I think that their real fear is that the Crones (i.e. Women over age 50 or so) will have an *unprecedented* level of power due to relative strength in numbers, and thus so will Women in general. That is because Women are living longer than ever before, as well as having fewer kids. And the men are getting scared.  Hence the recent push to whittle away Women's reproductive rights, eventually including most birth control as well.

Ah, you say, but what about the supposedly legitimate economic fears of an aging (and eventually shrinking) population?  Well, a recent study came out that found that such fears are largely overblown.  In fact, moderately low fertility (i.e. between 1.5-2.0 children per woman) and a shrinking population would actually maximize living standards for the general population.  Not to say that an aging population will not pose some challenges, but on balance the benefits would outweigh such drawbacks.  Oh, and by the way, there is that elephant in the room--make that the elephant in the Volkswagen--OVERPOPULATION.  Left unchecked, it will destroy the very planet that gives us life.  While technology can largely solve the foreseeable economic challenges of aging and declining populations, the same cannot really be said of the intractable ecological problems of overpopulation.  And the only ethical way to do this is to voluntarily have fewer children, i.e. well below the "replacement rate" of 2.1 or so.  According to the best evidence, the best way to accomplish this is female empowerment and poverty reduction, since after all, the number one cause of overpopulation is MEN who force, coerce, deceive, and/or brainwash Women into having kids that they otherwise would not have (or much sooner and closer-spaced than otherwise).  Sorry fellas, but the truth hurts.

So what about countries like Japan, Italy, Greece, Spain, etc. with so-called "lowest-low" total fertility rates below 1.5?  Yes, it is likely that they will hit a sort of short-to-medium-term "pothole" on the road to sustainability if they stay below 1.5 for too long.  Their populations' aging and decline will be significantly more rapid than for countries with TFRs between 1.5-2.0, and may be more difficult to adjust to from an economic perspective.  Well, the answer to that, again, is increased female empowerment.  We see that European countries with greater female empowerment and more generous social safety nets for mothers and children tend to have higher fertility than those with less female empowerment and stingier safety nets such as Spain, Italy, and Greece.  Even though all of those countries have TFRs below replacement, Northern and Western Europe are generally around 1.6-2.0 while Southern and Eastern Europe are generally significantly below 1.5 children per woman.  The proof is clearly in the pudding.

Make no mistake, if Women were to take over the world tomorrow, the global TFR would plummet to 1.5 or lower almost overnight.  But it would not stay below 1.5 for very long, as it would gradually rise back up to around 1.5-1.9 where it will remain for at least a generation or two, and eventually rise to around the replacement rate of 2.1 after the population shrinks significantly over time.  And honestly, it can't happen soon enough.  We must leave room for Nature, lest Nature not leave room for us.  We have been warned, decades ago in fact. 

In other words, VIVE LA FEMME!  Let the planetary healing begin!

What the "Nordic Model" Gets Wrong

There has been a lot of controversy lately about the so-called "Nordic Model" of in terms of sex work.  For those who don't know, the Nordic Model refers to the policy in Sweden, Norway, and Iceland (and now Canada and France as well) of decriminalizing the sex workers themselves but criminalizing the buyers.  Having been on the proverbial back-burner for years, the issue has recently been the subject of much political discourse after Amnesty International controversially came out in favor of full decriminalization (for both buyers and sellers) of sex work in 2015.  Two recent op-eds, both of which in favor of the Nordic Model (and thus against Amnesty's new stance), have been written about the policy, one by former President Jimmy Carter and one by author and prostitution survivor Rachel Moran.  And truth be told, both authors make some very good and insightful points that are very difficult to dismiss or ignore outright, especially when looking at international and before-and-after comparisons under various policy changes.

While the Nordic Model is clearly a step-up from the worst-of-both-worlds American Model (i.e. criminalize everyone involved, often going easier on the buyers than the sex workers themselves), one should note that it still leaves an awful lot to be desired.  While it gets some things right, it also gets some things wrong--the biggie being something that practically all sides of the debate also get wrong.  And no, it's not just that it's supposed success has been recently called into question--though that is also true.  Nor is it the idea that it is relatively agency-denying to Women--though that is also true.  Nor is it the idea that the Nordic Model can sometimes hurt those it is supposed to help--though that is also true. Nope, it's something far more fundamental about the nature of sex and sex work--so what is it?

Basically, there is a set of fundamental truths that have always existed and always will:  1) As Guru Rasa von Werder has repeatedly noted, prostitution is but one of many forms of "selling sex"--in fact, the most common form generally goes by the name of "marriage", 2) Sex work has existed even when Women used to rule the world, and will continue after Women reclaim their rightful position as the new leaders of the free world once again, 3) When Women are in charge of the profession, it becomes radically different than it is with men in charge, 4) Beggar-thy-neighbour policies to artificially inflate the relative "cost" of sex for men are notorious for backfiring, 5) There has never been a society in which Women had sexual freedom but men did not.  The reverse has been true, of course, and there have been many societies where both or neither were sexually free, but trying to do the former would not last long since a black market for sex (paid or otherwise) would quickly develop.  That's the grain of truth to the otherwise-bogus "race to the bottom" argument, and 6) Punishing anyone for sex between consenting adults, paid or otherwise, is really a backwards and illiberal idea when you think about it.

True, the sex industry is notorious for great evils, especially human trafficking.  No argument from me there.  But we need to get to the root causes of such evils--and those root causes are (surprise, surprise) capitalism and patriarchy.  From the desperation that Women and children are driven to as a result of such systems, to the fact that men dominate the industry (and world), these are the real issues, and the evils of the industry are simply symptoms of such wholesale and systemic evil.

I personally believe that consenting-adult sex work should be completely decriminalized if not legalized, provided that only Women control it.  Men have utterly ruined the "oldest profession" when they took it over.  Otherwise, contrary to those who oppose it, sex work is not inherently evil or toxic to society.  In fact, it can be quite healing and beneficial to society.  So let the planetary healing begin!